The 800 pound national security gorilla is sitting right out in the open but we are all talking about something else.

According to the Natural Resources Defense Council, Pakistan has more than 50 operational nuclear warheads capable of being launched by missile. We are not talking about a handful of low-yield nukes that exist in North Korea or the warheads that Iran might develop over the next five years. An unstable Pakistan is potently armed with nuclear weapons now and the country is vulnerable at any time to the turbulent politics embroiling the Islamic world.

We really need to begin a vigorous debate about Pakistan and its nuclear arsenal. Unfortunately, it is entirely possible that we could wake up one morning, turn on the news and hear that junior military officers with militant Islamic politics staged a coup and gained control of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons.

According to Times of India, Pakistani authorities arrested key leaders in the military for collaborating with al Qaeda. The Times said:

Over 20 Pakistani armymen, including some top brass, have been arrested for links with the al-Qaeda giving credence to speculations that Pakistan's support to the "war on terrorism" was being undermined by a section of its security establishment.

Well-placed army sources were quoted by the Pakistani media saying two groups of armymen were taken into custody at different times and for different reasons and are facing charges for allegedly aiding and supporting the Islamic terrorist organization and an enemy country.

Pakistani military spokesman Maj Gen Shaukat Saulat has reportedly admitted that three or four mid-level officers, including a lieutenant colonel, were being investigated for violation of discipline and about suspected links with Islamic extremist groups, reports said.

One of the groups is under investigation for links with al-Qaeda, while the other, which is larger in size, was taken into custody for its connection with a neighbouring enemy country, The Dawn said.

According to another report quoting a retired senior military officer told the paper that soldiers arrested in Pakistan were likely to be linked to a group of 26 army officers arrested in September 1995 for planning an Islamist coup against the then prime minister Benazir Bhutto.

The group facing investigation for Al Qaeda connections was arrested some months ago in Rawalpindi after a lead was provided by Khalid Sheikh Mohammad, who was arrested from the residence of a Jamaat-i-Islami activist. The arrest of another Jamaat-i-Islami man from Mirpur, Ahsan Aziz, is also linked with the Al Qaeda group.

"In the past the army had long supported extremist Islamic causes such as the Taliban in Afghanistan and similar militant groups in Kashmir, Chechnya and Central Asia," reports said.

President Pervez Musharraf has been the target of several assassination attempts connected to members of the armed forces. Despite the president’s pledge that the military has been purged of militant Islamic influences, roundups of junior level officers continue almost on a monthly basis. The president has increasingly eroded democratic institutions in the country in order to preserve his power. Recently he suspended Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry in order to continue his crack down on dissidents. Thousands of lawyers took to the streets of Pakistan’s major cities to protest the dismissal.

Since President Musharraf allied his country with the United States after September 11, President Bush’s only concern seems to be the aggressiveness of the Pakistani military in the mountainous Northwest corner of the country, which is a remaining Taliban stronghold.

It is true that civil unrest is increasing in the Northwest provinces and just last week more than 100 people died in fighting. In those areas, support for the Taliban always has been strong and seems to be growing even greater over time.

But we have our “War against Terror” blinders on. We have not adequately balanced our stated goals with the reality of Pakistan’s unstable internal politics and the very real possibility that a coup d'état of radical Islamists, dedicated to jihad against the West, could devastate our strategic objectives in the region. Imagine the consequences and the sense of powerlessness we would feel if, overnight, more than 50 nuclear weapons fell into the hands of militant extremists.

Clearly, both the American executive and legislative branches are afraid to engage in open debate about this problem for fear of undercutting “our guy” in Islamabad. We blindly accept assurances from Musharraf and the Pakistani elite that such a coup could never happen and that things are slowly improving. This chatter is exactly the type of noise we heard before the fall of the Shah of Iran. It is also the same brand of foreign policy we practiced in the third world during the Cold War: if a nation is headed by “our guy,” let’s not rock the boat by looking at the long-term picture.

What exactly does the United States plan to do if a coup puts in place a hostile, radical Islamic government in Pakistan? How do we avoid the export of existing nuclear weapons to hostile nations or stateless terrorist groups? How would a change in leadership affect Pakistan’s historic rivalry with India? Are there any other options besides total support of President Musharraf?

Personally, I don’t know the answers to all of these questions but my instincts tell me that we had better start figuring them out. Otherwise, we might wake up one morning in total shock and paralyzed with fear. And such blunt challenges always seem to lead to bad decisions by the American foreign policy establishment.