Apr 24 2008

There are some interesting observations after the latest round of voting. Whitehousepicture

I think the CNN commentators had it right last night when they said this election is turning less on race or gender and more on age. The statistics of Senator Clinton overwhelmingly carrying the senior vote by almost two to one are striking. While at the same time Obama is sweeping the young voters. Talk about change! There is no question that the Senator from New York was helped by a Pennsylvania electorate where 58% of the voters are over 45 years old. The state is second to only Florida in the number of seniors.

Also, we have to be careful not to paint this as a black vs. white race. Obama carried 40% of the white vote and did particularly well among white men. The commentators tend to focus on this issue and they would be wise to look at the statistics before making such grand proclamations. They can only increase tensions by not being careful with this one.

If Senator Clinton should win the nomination, she will owe it to women voters and seniors. They have consistently kept her alive. Not surprisingly, it is the older women voters who have suffered great discrimination over the years who truly express their joy at long last possibly seeing a women as President that gets them to the voting booth. Some of the younger women voters have not had the same experience.

The same pride factor can be said of African-American voters and Obama. The pride stimulus is a strong reason in his huge 10 to 1 leaders in that community. Who would have thought just forty years after marching in the South, we would be able to vote for a viable African American candidate for President. It is amazing.

A word on those totally inaccurate exit polls. We should just forget about them.

Interestingly, I think we are seeing what we used to call in previous pioneering elections called "the Bradley factor". Mayor Thomas Bradley was the first African American Mayor of Los Angeles. He ran for Governor of California and was forcefully proclaimed the decisive winner in the exit polls. The next morning he lost by around 5%. Apparently, people did not want to appear racist and lied to the poll takers. This phenomenon was repeated in Doug Wilder's successful race for Governor of Virginia and also to some extent Mayor Dinkins successful race for Mayor of New York. They ran about 5% behind the exit polls. The exit polls show Obama only 4% behind Clinton. If you add that 5% you end up with 9% which was exactly her margin of victory. This might be an explanation.

Finally, once again the networks and media outlets did not include the LGBT in their exit polls or at least didn't talk about them. Pennsylvania is a state with a sizable LGBT community and was courted heavily by both sides. In fact, it could account for Senator Clinton's margins in Buck's County. Isn't it time that this sizable voting bloc be discussed and given its rightful place in the political process?