Sep 23 2009

The United States continues along with a conventional foreign policy dealing with terrorism within the existing boundaries of existing nation states. The war in Iraq, the war in Afghanistan, the threat of a unstable Pakistan are all examples of dealing with traditional nation states in our 'battle against terror.' Eight years after 9/11, we are pursuing the same old strategy that is clearly not working either in our efforts to curb terror nor in a dream of creating 'democratic states' in the middle of chaos.

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The fact of the matter is the world has changed dramatically since 9/11 and new, out-of-the-box examination of our historical and existing foreign policy must begin now. Our real threat from terrorism is not established nation states. Traditional foreign policy can usually sort through that stuff - although often we do it badly. The real threat to our national security is the increasing number of failed nation states or put otherwise, nations who are countries in name only. Chaos, war lords, insurgents and the lack of a functioning government exist within the boundaries of these geographic areas often crossing internationally recognized boundaries.

While in some of these ungovernable areas ideology or religious factions dominate the tribal aspects of the conflicts, increasingly we are seeing those factions turn to terrorism to gain power for the economic domination of a region. This means that multi-billionaire war lords will fight to the death to maintain their control of regions. Where at one time the rebels in the Congo were driven by their tribal hatreds, now they are setting up economic fiefdoms to deal in raw resources and such trade as diamonds. In the eastern deserts region of Ethiopea, we have seen the 'secessionists' movement increasing because it is a safe haven for a variety of insurgents from Somalia. The central government has little control in this huge eastern region and it is increasingly becoming, like Somalia, a failed nation state. Yemen, with the battle with the Zaydis sect of Islam, is on the verge of becoming the latest failed nation state.

Unfortunately, the number of potential failed states increases as each day passes. In many areas we are dealing with geographic nations created by old European treaties that have nothing to do with tribal homelands and geographic common sense. After decades of the 'First World' pouring tons of money into these weak 'nation states', we are beginning to see their failure. Thus this chaos leads to terrorism seeking economic enrichment by trading in dangerous weapons, raw materials, drugs or just plain old piracy. Africa, without a doubt, is the playland of the gangster tribal lords who seek to establish 'states' within states. We have seen places like Sierra Leone, Somalia, Congo, Sudan and others often become states in name only. Such countries as Chad, Kenya and Nigeria are also not immune from this danger. The cost to the citizens of these places often has been massacres, starvation, massive refugee flows and widespread rape and sexual abuse of women and children.

In many ways, we also see the 'inside an established nation another nation' phenomenal even in Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Don't be surprised with the changing politics of South America and the high drug trade to also see it in Columbia, Bolivia and even Paraguay. This trend will only increase; it will broaden the safe haven for terrorists

The weapons industry has found huge conduits for selling their latest, most sophisticated weaponry without interference from a central government or national military. There is just as likely a chance that these safe havens will traffic in nuclear technology as anyplace. We know for a fact that ground to air missiles are common place sales items in these failed nation states.

Robert Kaplan's "The Coming Anarchy" is the first real significant book to deal with this growing international crisis. We have two strong reasons to shift our foreign policy to come to terms with this new and dangerous trend. One is a strong and powerful morality that should care about stopping the mass rape, death and devastation of the citizens of those areas. The second one is deeply rooted in our own national interest in making us safe within our own country.

It is time to stop looking at our foreign policy as a product of post World War I treaties and start a plan reflecting the world as it really exists. Get on with it!