Mar 10 2010

Nigeria-riots-jos-2  On paper, there seems to be reason to be optimistic about Africa's largest nation, Nigeria. The booming nation is the second largest economy on the continent and the one of the fastest growing economically in the world. As one of the world largest oil producers, it has a long term source of revenue. Largos, its largest city, is the economic center for most of Western Africa. The Nigerian military is so large and sophisticated that often it is the leading participant in African peacekeeping missions.

Since its independence in 1963, the nation seems to the world to be a place of growth. Yes of course, it has had it difficulties as had most independent nations, including the United States. Nigeria had its civil war. In 1967, the eastern region known as Biafra attempted to succeed from Nigeria and seek its own independence. Largely populated by Igbo tribe members, the creation of Biafra lead to a civil war that killed over one million people in a brutal 30 month period. Over the 40 years, the wounds seem to have healed and Nigeria has presented itself to the world as an African economic giant.

However, all is not well in Nigeria; in fact, in some respects, things are getting worse by the day. The possibility that one of the world's largest oil producers and a point of stability for Western Africa could fall into chaos is not out of the question. The brewing situation in Nigeria, which is the world's 8th largest in population, should be cause for grave concern within the United States. If the multi-problems erupt, we could even see this once powerful nation become a 'failed nation state'. Most likely would quickly dismiss my assertions but I believe them to be a real possibility.

Just look at the current situation: The country is 50% Muslim and 48% Christian and there has been repeated and deadly clashes between the two groups. There is a budding insurgency in the eastern states again in the Niger River Delta (the area that used to be Biafra). Corruption is rampant in the central government and despite amazing wealth from oil revenues the gap between rich and poor is astounding. All these ingredients create a tinder box ready to explode.

Nigeria has 36 states and 19 of them are considered in the north sector of the country. Most of these states are heavily populated by Muslims. Many already are governed by Sharia Law often ignoring national laws. Jos is center for tin mining in the middle belt of Nigeria. Bordering on the Muslim north and Christian south, the half million people have suffered over the last two years massive sectarian violence between the two faiths. Thousands have died in the most brutal possible ways. The violence threatens to spill over into other areas of Nigeria as each religious faith attempts to revenge the atrocities of Jos. Many figures in the Islamic world would welcome a separate Islamic independent country consisting of the northern states.

In the east, the insurgent group MEND has been fighting the central government and the oil companies in the Niger River Delta. Although there have been several cease fires, the region is filled with rage. The area produces most of Nigeria's oil and receives the least amount of assistance in return. The central government has historically ignored the needs of the eastern states since the attempt at creating Biafra. As problems continue to grow in the northern states, expect MEND to take advantage of the situation to enhance its rule in the Niger River Delta.

Space forbids me to go into further details of all the ingredients that are present for Nigeria to self-implode and lead to a massive crisis for the international community. Outside of Pakistan, I believe the situation in Nigeria is fraught with the most danger for the United States, its war against terrorism and our economical well being. Can anyone tell me what the policy of the United States is in regards to Nigeria and, for that matter, any other troubled African nation?

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