Aug 5 2011




Heatwaves, tornado's, tsunami's and blizzards have been the hallmark of this year. Without question, 2011 will be one of the deadly, costly and devastating for natural disasters in recent memories. Now we most likely will be able to add hurricanes to the list. The last hurricane to hit the United States coast line was Hurricane Ike in 2008. We are now 1000 plus days, an all time record, since a hurricane has hit this nation.

Now the NOAA has increased their forecast of the number of hurricanes for the rest of the year. With Emily dumping tons of rain on Haiti, we are now up to five named storms so far this season.

NOAA believes that we could have up to 19 named storms this yea with 10 of them being full fledged hurricanes. Of those storms, up to five of them could be "Major Hurricanes" (Cat 3 or higher).That could take us to a storm named Tammy! The NOAA in its release states:

"Key climate factors predicted in May continue to support an active season. These include: the tropical multi-decadal signal, which since 1995 has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions, leading to more active seasons; exceptionally warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures (the third warmest on record); and the possible redevelopment of La Niña. Reduced vertical wind shear and lower air pressure across the tropical Atlantic also favor an active season.

Based on these conditions and on climate model forecasts, the confidence for an above-normal season has increased from 65 percent in May to 85 percent."