Please know that we are not sensationalizing this storm. Yes, there are a number of factors that could diminish its intensity or turn it out to sea. However as each day passes the worst possible scenario seems to be falling in place. The Euro Model which has forecast this storm all week and now appears to be correct, shows a powerful storm that could create havoc from Virginia to Maine.
The Euro shows the storm heading almost directly north and would stay over the warm Gulf stream waters fueling Sandy even more! Since it will travel almost a direct path, it will push a huge wall of water (storm surge) into the Jersey Shore, the Delaware Bay, Long Island and New England. Even the moon will be full making all the conditions almost perfect for a full fledge disaster
The forecast is that the barometric pressure will as low as that of a strong Cat 2 hurricane and winds could exceed 75 mph including in New York City in the storm enters New Jersey.
Some models have the Eastern part of Long Island and New England in the storm's path. Sandy is moving quicker and the effects could be felt in the Northeast late Sunday night into Monday.
Dr. Steve Masters says:
An alternative solution, shown by the 00Z ECMWF, 06Z GFDL, and 06Z NOGAPS models, is for Sandy to get caught up by the trough approaching the Eastern U.S., which will inject a large amount of energy into Sandy, converting it to a powerful subtropical storm that hits the mid-Atlantic or New England early next week with a central pressure below 960 mb and sustained winds of 60 - 70 mph. Such a storm would likely cause massive power outages and over a billion dollars in damage, as trees still in leaf take out power grids, and heavy rains and coastal storm surges create damaging flooding. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical tides will be at their peak for the month, increasing potential storm surge flooding. A similar meteorological situation occurred in October 1991, when Hurricane Grace became absorbed by a Nor'easter, becoming the so-called "Perfect Storm" that killed 13 people and did over $200 million in damage in the Northeast U.S.