Nov 16 2012

 

 

Obama%20and%20gays

While it is somewhat easy to take different constituencies and say that without them President Obama would have not had four more years. Of course the African-American, Hispanic, Single Women, Asian American or Jewish vote all were essential to the President's victory.

However, LGBT Americans have had elections where up to 40% voted for the Republicans. The William's Institute released data from their distinguished scholar, Gary Gates, who examines just how critical the LGBT vote was to the President's election. Coming out for marriage equality was not only the principled action but it turns out a really smart political move by the President.

Here are Gate's conclusions.

• 5% of the US electorate identified as lesbian, gay, or bisexual.

• LGBT voters supported Barack Obama over Mitt Romney by a 76% to 22% margin.

• The non-LGBT vote in Ohio is estimated to have favored Gov. Romney by 50% to 48%. With the LGBT vote (which is estimated to have favored Obama by an 85% to 15% margin) included, the results were reversed with President Obama winning by a margin of 50% to 48%.

• In Florida, the non-LGBT vote is estimated at 50% for Romney and 49% for Obama. With the LGBT vote (estimated at 71% for Obama and 28% for Romney) included, President Obama won by a margin of 50% to 49%.

• In the absence of LGBT voters, President Obama’s Electoral College winning margin of 332 to 206 would have been substantially reduced. Without the LGBT vote, he still would have won the election, but his Electoral College margin would have been reduced to 285 compared to Gov. Romney’s 253.

• To win the national popular vote, Gov. Romney would have needed to garner slightly more than half of the LGBT vote. If 51% of LGBT voters had supported the Republican candidate, he would have won the popular vote by a very small margin.

• In Ohio, support from just 35% of LGBT voters would have resulted in a Romney victory.

• In Florida, support from 37% of the LGBT electorate would have given the Republican a win.

• In Virginia, Romney would have needed just over half (51%) of the LGBT vote to win.

• In Colorado, Romney would have needed 81% of the LGBT vote to secure the state’s nine Electoral College votes.

• While majority support among LGBT voters would not have gotten Gov. Romney over the threshold for an Electoral College majority, it would have given him a popular vote majority and would have brought him to 266 Electoral College votes, just four