Dec 22 2012




Harper Polling just completed a national poll of voting Republicans and came up with some interesting results. For example, 36% of Republicans believe it is perfectly fine to violate the 'no new taxes' pledge. And a very high 66% of Republicans believe it is better for the country to compromise to reach solutions between the two parties.

Now for the fun part of the poll. Harper included a poll on who Republicans would pick as their first choice for the Republican nomination for President in 2016.

Marco Rubio 34%

Chris Christie 18%

Condi Rice 14%

Rand Paul 8%

Allen West 5%

Scott Brown 3%

Undecided 18%

The poll explain the results:

"Nonetheless, I’m glad I did because the numbers are interesting. To start, Rubio’s 34% was surprising. Although, it seems to jibe with Wednesday’s Farleigh-Dickinson poll that showed Christie and Rubio with the best image ratings among Republicans. I’m not sure what the sample frame was for Republicans in that poll. Ours is based on a verifiable history of voting in primaries.

Rubio is strongest in the South and West. There’s some logic in that. He’s a son of the South, for those who count Florida as the South. The Hispanic appeal may run a bit stronger out West. In the Northeast, he and Christie run virtually tied at 29-27%. The Midwest may ultimately be the harder nut to crack for Rubio. His working class background may be his strongest connection to the industrial Midwest.

The Chris Christie primary voter appears to lean more toward the middle. Along with Condi Rice, his voters are more likely to support exceptions to the no-new-taxes pledge and they believe that compromise is better for the country. They are less likely to watch Fox News and support TEA party goals.

Speaking of the TEA party. It is the foundation of Rubio’s support. Approaching half of all TEA supporters (43%) are voting for him. If I’m one of the other guys, it can’t stay that way. Somebody has to eat away at that base for Rubio.

Rice and Scott Brown are the only candidates who do better among women than men. We threw Brown in the mix to see if his historic 2011 special election victory had any bite with GOP primary voters.

As for, ‘why Allen West?’. He has one of the most profitable grassroots followings in the party and the force of personality that could make him relevant when the cameras come on. But no groundswell of support at this time.