Feb 22 2013

 

 

 

Natesilver%20538

One of the new celebrities to emerge from the 2012 elections was Nate Silver of the New York Times. He project both the electoral vote and popular vote perfectly for the presidential election. Since his outstanding work doing the election, Silver has been much in demand and his every pronouncement is listen to with care.

Silver has issued his first projections for the United States Senate races in 2014. In his introduction, he writes:

"Democrats, faced with a daunting set of Senate races in 2012, not only survived but thrived, adding two seats to their majority.

The party will face a difficult map again in 2014, however. Twenty-one of the 35 seats up for election are now held by Democrats. Moreover, most the states that will be casting ballots for the Senate in 2014 are Republican leaning: 7 of the 21 Democratic-held seats are in states carried by the former Republican presidential nominee, Mitt Romney, while just one of the Republican seats is in a state won by President Obama.

Democrats could also suffer from the downside to presidential coattails. Most of the seats up for grabs in 2014 were last contested in 2008, a very strong Democratic year. Without having Mr. Obama on the ballot, and with an electorate that is likely to be older and whiter than in presidential years, some Democrats may find that their 2008 coattails have turned into a midterm headwind instead.

Are the conditions favorable enough to make Republicans odds-on favorites to gain six seats and win the Senate majority? Not quite. Six seats are a lot to gain, and Republicans are at risk of nominating subpar candidates in a number of races. But it would not take all that much to tip the balance toward them."

Fivethirtyeight-0220-sen2014-tmagSF