Harking back to history, commentator and all-around political guru, Robert Shrum, takes us back to the 1984 election. In this provocative piece on "The Week", Shrum makes a powerful case that there are numerous similarities between Reagan's situation facing voters in 1984 and Obama's current position with them. It makes for remarkable reading and even better dinner party conversation!
Counting on the GOP to continue to their path of self-destruction, Shrum says "The GOP is on the verge of selecting the most patently phony nominee in either party since the original empty suit named Warren G. Harding."
Shrum outlines three basic points why Reagan and Obama are similar this year. Here are some excerpts but you must read this very informative article on "The Week" in its entirety.
First, both men had to cope with deep recessions — and Obama with a downturn more global in scope that threatened actual depression. Mid-term, both men looked as if they could be one-term presidents. In the Harris poll, Reagan collapsed from 67 percent approval to 56 percent disapproval in just 11 months; Obama's standing has never been that dire.
Then the Reagan economy started to recover. Unemployment, which had peaked at 10.8 percent, was 8.3 percent by the time Reagan delivered his election year State of the Union message in 1984. This month, the corresponding figure for Obama was 8.5 percent — down from a high of 10 percent.
Both presidents could report a measure of progress to the country. Reagan said: "Inflation has been beaten down" — and then talked about the millions who were now finding jobs. Obama said: "In the last 22 months, businesses have created more than 3 million jobs." He pointed to the rescue of the auto industry: "Today General Motors is back on top as the world's number one automaker." But both presidents were also tempered. Reagan's words — "We know that many of our fellow countrymen are still out of work" — strikingly pre-figure Obama's reference to "a time when millions of Americans are looking for work."
He continues later with the second point:
The usual caveats apply, now more than in 1984. In a globalized world, events elsewhere, especially in the eurozone, could slow or derail growth here. But Obama shares a second trait with Reagan that has already strengthened the prospect for sustaining the recovery: He's principled, but pragmatic.
Reagan, who would make a deal on Social Security with Tip O'Neill and a deal on immigration reform with Ted Kennedy, also raised taxes after cutting them when that made economic sense. In his 1984 State of the Union speech, he even boasted of a decidedly progressive measure: "I have requested for E.P.A. one of the largest percentage increases of any agency." As I've argued before, Reagan would be excommunicated as a RINO in today's GOP.
Similarly, Obama, to the consternation of his base, agreed to keep the Bush tax cuts through 2012 in return for a payroll tax cut and extended unemployment compensation. This — dare we use the word? — stimulates the economy and boxes in Congressional Republicans who can't afford to block a renewal of the payroll tax break and unemployment benefits lest they appear to be rooting for a slowdown — and then get blamed if it comes.
Then Shrum delivers his third point:
Third, Obama, like Reagan before him, offers an overarching theme that resonates with the distinctive mood of his re-election year.
On one side of the spectrum, Reagan's call in 1984 was for "limiting the size and scope of government" — presumably excepting defense, his own tax increases, and spending on E.P.A. Coming after the assumed failures of government in the Carter years, this was a powerful message, especially against the Democratic nominee, Carter's Vice President Walter Mondale, who became a poster boy for the alleged excesses of the past.
On the other side of the spectrum, Obama has trumpeted his own overarching summons to an America "where everyone gets a fair shot, and everyone does their fair share, and everyone plays by the same set of rules." Such an appeal rides on and reinforces the rising tide of public opinion in America today. And while it's not just about taxes, but about reining in Wall Street speculation, rebuilding manufacturing, and opening up innovation and educational chances, the narrative can be summed up — and the president has done so — in the "Buffet Rule": Why should a billionaire pay a lower tax rate than his secretary? That's not the heart of Obama's purposes, which have far more substance, but it is a symbol which surely connects.
Finally, Shrum closes with this delightful ending:
History has lessons — and also unexpected events hidden in the recesses of the future. The latter we cannot predict; but on the basis of what we know now, in the politics of 2012, Gingrich isn't the Gipper, and Romney isn't Ronnie.
It's the other guy, the Democrat who in 2008 presciently — and controversially — praised President Reagan for "chang[ing] the trajectory of America." He did so amid the winds of an economic storm that finally and slowly cleared. So, in his own landmark achievements, has Barack Obama — and this election year, the trajectory is turning for him as it once did for Ronald Reagan.
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