New National Poll: Four Way Tie For Republican Nomination in 2016; Christie Gives Clinton A Close Race

 

 

 

Public Policy Polling has released it monthly national poll on the 2016 Presidential race. Senator Rand Paul has doubled his support from 7% to 14%. The other interesting factor is that Ted Cruz enters the poll with a solid 7%. Congressman Paul Ryan continues to lag behind in fifth place.

The poll shows basically a four way tie for the Republican nomination. Here are the results:

Marco Rubio: 16%

Chris Christie: 15%

Jeb Bush: 15%

Rand Paul: 14%

Paul Ryan: 9%

Ted Cruz: 7%

Rick Santorum: 5%

Bobby Jindal: 3%

Susana Martinez: 1%

Hillary Clinton continues to dominate the Democratic field with 63% of Democrats wanting her to be the nominee. The Vice-President is way back with just 13%.

If both Hillary and the Vice President don't run then the race is wide open. Interestingly, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has steadily risen in the poll and is now at 5% if the 'big two' don't run. She ties with O'Malley and leads Warner. Cuomo has the lead with 25% in that race.

Finally, which Republican gives Hillary the toughest race? Hands down it is Governor Christie. In a match-up:

Hillary Clinton: 47%

Chris Christie: 44%.

For Rubio and Paul, she leads them by 10%! She defeats both of them by 51% to 41%.

New Poll: How Do Americans View The Supreme Court?

 

 

Public Policy Polling has completed a national poll on how Americans view the Supreme Court of the United States. Interestingly, 36% of Americans believe it is too liberal despite the fact that conservatives control five of the nine seats.

Who is the most popular Justice? That honor belongs to Justice Anthony Kennedy who is closely followed by Justice Sonia Sotomayor who is also the best known Justice!

Here is the polling firms report:

-Americans overall have a negative opinion of the Supreme Court- 42% see it unfavorably, with just 33% holding a positive opinion. Democrats have a narrowly positive opinion of it (39/37) while both Republicans (29/44) and independents (31/46) have pretty unfavorable views.

-Only 29% of Americans think the Supreme Court is ideologically 'about right' with 36% believing it's too liberal and 30% that it's too conservative. Voters in both parties think the Court is stacked to the other side- 59% of Republicans think the Court is too liberal to 26% who think it's about right, and 49% of Democrats think it's too conservative to 33% who think it's about right.

-There's a wide range in how well known the various members of the Supreme Court are to the public. Sonia Sotomayor is the best known with 74% name recognition, followed by Clarence Thomas at 68%, Ruth Bader Ginsburg at 64%, Antonin Scalia at 58%, Elena Kagan at 55%, John Roberts at 48%, Samuel Alito at 47%, Anthony Kennedy at 41%, and Stephen Breyer at 35%.

-Even though he's one of the least well known justices, Kennedy has the best net favorability of them all at +9 (25/16). That's because he's the only one who's seen positively by both Democrats (29/16) and Republicans (21/14).

The next most popular after Kennedy is Sotomayor at +8 (41/33). Others in positive territory are Ginsburg at +6 (35/29), Breyer at +3 (19/16), and Kagan at +1 (28/27).

-The more conservative members of the Court tend to also be the ones less popular with the public. Chief Justice John Roberts has the worst net favorability rating at -8 (20/28) largely because Republicans only narrowly like him following the Obamacare decision (22/21) while Democrats still have a pretty negative opinion of him (16/36). Samuel Alito (23/24), Antonin Scalia (27/31), and Clarence Thomas (31/37) all have negative marks as well, in each case because Democrats dislike them to a greater extent than Republicans see them in a positive light.

-Sotomayor's favorability with Hispanics is 62/19, while Thomas' with African Americans is 22/52.

Democrat Markey Increases Lead Over Republican Gomez In Massachusetts Senate Race

 

 

While not out of the woods yet, Democrats are breathing a little easier in Massachusetts. In the special election to fill Secretary of State John Kerry's United States Senate seat, Democratic Congressman Ed Markey has increased his lead over charismatic Republican Gabriel Gomez.

In a survey conducted by Public Policy Polling for the League of Conservation Voters, Markey pulled into a seven point lead. Here are the results:

Congressman Ed Markey: 48%
Garbriel Gomez: 41%

Markey holds a 12% lead among women and ties with male voters. The good news is that Democrats are coming home to Markey after a difficult primary.

In a separate Public Policy Poll, after having marriage equality for over the last eight years the poll asked voters what the impact has been in Massachusetts.

Has had a negative impact: 15%
Has had a positive impact: 25%
No effect either way: 60%

Massachusetts voters still approve of marriage equality after eight years;

For marriage equality: 58%
Against marriage equality: 32%

Massachusetts United States Senate Race Is Toss-Up

 

 

 

As if the Democrats didn't have enough worries for 2014 with so many of their seats up in red states, now Massachusetts is becoming a close call. The seat was vacated by Senator John Kerry when he accepted the President's offer to become Secretary of State. Few worried that it could fall into Republican hands after former Senator Scott Brown decided that New Hampshire might be more friendly toward him!

Congressman Ed Markey easily won the Democratic nomination.

However an attractive 'moderate' Republican Gabriel Gomez won the Republican nomination. The Hispanic former Navy Seal is the kind of Republican that gives Democrats big headaches in Massachusetts.  In fact he might be the new face of the Republican Party.  He is born of Columbian immigrents, hispanic, supports marriage equality and young. 

Markey leads by only 4%!

If Democrats fail to keep this seat, this could spell trouble for the Party to keep the Senate in 2014.

Public Policy Polling recently completed a poll and reported.

PPP's first poll of the general election in the Massachusetts Senate special finds a close race, with Ed Markey leading Gabriel Gomez by a 44-40 margin.

Gomez is starting out as a pretty popular candidate, with 41% of voters rating him favorably to 27% with an unfavorable opinion. Beyond having good numbers with Republicans he's at 42/24 with independents, and actually seen narrowly positively even by Democrats at 33/32. Voters meanwhile are more divided on Markey, with 44% holding a positive view of him to 41% with a negative one. He's at 31/50 with independents.

For a Republican to be competitive in Massachusetts they need to win independents by a hefty margin and get a fair amount of crossover support from Democrats, and right now Gomez is doing both of those things. He's up 47/31 with independents and winning over 21% of Democratic voters. Both those numbers suggest that some folks who supported Stephen Lynch in the primary are being a little reticent about supporting Markey in the general.

First New Hampshire Poll For 2016 Presidential Race

 

Alright, I know, it is way too early to be talking about 2016 but these polls are fun. Besides they give us great dinner table conversation. Public Policy Polling has done its first poll for the New Hampshire primary for the Republicans and Democrats.

The polls shows good news, of course, for Hillary Clinton and surprising news for Senator Rand Paul. Interestingly Chris Christie drops from first to third place among Republicans. Poor Paul Ryan, even after running nationwide last year, can only muster 7%!

Here are the results with Clinton in the race: :

Hillary Clinton: 68%
Joe Biden: 12%
Elizabeth Warren: 5%
Andrew Cuomo: 3%
Deval Patrick: 2%

If Hillary doesn't run then here are the results:

Joe Biden: 44%
Elizabeth Warren: 12%
Deval Patrick: 9%
Andrew Cuomo: 9%

If both Hillary and Biden don't run here are the results.

Don't Know: 30%
Andrew Cuomo: 23%
Elizabeth Warren: 22%
Deval Patrick: 17%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 4%
Martin O'Malley: 2%
Brian Schweitzer: 1%
Mark Warner: 1%

Here are the results from the Republican side:

Rand Paul: 28%
Marco Rubio: 25%
Chris Christie: 14%
Jeb Bush: 7%
Paul Ryan: 7%
Rick Santorum: 4%
Susana Martinez: 3%
Rick Perry: 1%
Bobby Jindal: 1%

America The Conspiracy!

 

 

 

Americans love their favorite conspiracy theories. Public Policy Polling recent tested who and how many believed in certain conspiracies. Hard to believe that 7% of Americans don't believed we ever landed on the moon! Looking at these statistics makes me wonder where people get their information! Here are some of the more interesting ones.

- 37% of voters believe global warming is a hoax, 51% do not. Republicans say global warming is a hoax by a 58-25 margin, Democrats disagree 11-77, and Independents are more split at 41-51. 61% of Romney voters believe global warming is a hoax

- 6% of voters believe Osama bin Laden is still alive

- 21% of voters say a UFO crashed in Roswell, NM in 1947 and the US government covered it up. More Romney voters (27%) than Obama voters (16%) believe in a UFO coverup

-28% of voters believe secretive power elite with a globalist agenda is conspiring to eventually rule the world through an authoritarian world government, or New World Order. A plurality of Romney voters (38%) believe in the New World Order compared to 35% who don’t

-28% of voters believe Saddam Hussein was involved in the 9/11 attacks. 36% of Romney voters believe Saddam Hussein was involved in 9/11, 41% do not

-20% of voters believe there is a link between childhood vaccines and autism, 51% do not

-13% of voters think Barack Obama is the anti-Christ, including 22% of Romney voters

-15% of voters say the government or the media adds mind-controlling technology to TV broadcast signals (the so-called Tinfoil Hat crowd)

- 5% believe exhaust seen in the sky behind airplanes is actually chemicals sprayed by the government for sinister reasons

-15% of voters think the medical industry and the pharmaceutical industry “invent” new diseases to make money

New National Poll Released Showing Republicans Choice For 2016!

 

 

 

Public Policy Polling has released a new poll showing who are the Republican voters favorites for President in 2016. The big news is that Senator Rand Paul has jumped from sixth place in previous polls to a strong second place. The leader in the poll, Senator Marco Rubio, numbers have hardly changed at all.

Here is the ranking for the contenders:

Marco Rubio: 21%
Rand Paul: 17%
Chris Christie: 15%
Jeb Bush: 12%
Paul Ryan: 12%
Rick Santorum: 5%
Bobby Jindal: 4%
Rick Perry: 2%
Susana Martinez: 1%

In the same poll, Democrats by huge margins lined up behind Hillary Clinton. What happens if she doesn't run? Here are the results:

Joe Biden: 49%
Elizabeth Warren: 11%
Andrew Cuomo: 10%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 7%

The big news on the Democratic side is the emergence of Senator Kirsten Gillibrand as a contender if Hillary doesn't run. 

POLITICAL UPDATE: News from the World Of Politics

 

 

 

Senator Domenici and Ms. Laxalt

-You just can't beat those 'family values' Republicans. Turns out that Retired Republican New Mexico Senator Pete Domenici had an out of wedlock son in the 1980's with former the daughter of former Republican Senator Paul Laxalt! Yep, you read that right! The married Domenici, who has eight children with his wife, had an affair and a son with the daughter of a fellow Senator.

-The National Journal had a tie for first place for the title of 'most liberal United States Senator'. Both Senator Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) and Senator Tom Udall (D-NM) received the top rating of 90.7. See the remaining top ten here.

-While Democrats are searching for a candidate to run against Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), the Tea Party might be challenging him in the primary. Louisville corporate type Matthew Bevin is exploring a challenge. Really? Mitch McConnell is too liberal for Kentucky Republicans? Really?

-Congressman Ed Markey (D-MA) looks in pretty good shape to take the seat of Secretary of State John Kerry. Not only are Massachusetts Republicans having a hard time finding a viable candidate but the latest Public Policy Polling (PPP) has Markey leading his Democratic primary challenger Stephen Lynch by 45% to 28%.

-Former Montana Democratic Governor Brian Schweitzer wants to be President really bad. However his first stop might be to primary sitting Democratic Senator Max Baucus. The PPP has Schweitzer leading Baucus by 54% to 35%. Baucus is also running weak against all Republicans.

-PPP has been busy polling recently. For the vacant U.S. Senate seat in Georgia, the Democrats have an outside shot of taking it. Former Democratic Senator Max Cleland (above with Obama's) narrowly leads every Republican that is considering a run for the seat.

-In the same poll, Hillary Clinton would defeat both Marco Rubio and Paul Ryan in a 2016 Presidential Race by 4% adn 5% respectively. Hillary looks stronger and stronger as each day passes running strong polls in traditional Republican states like Alaska, Georgia, Kentucky and even Texas.

-In the latest Quinnipiac University Poll, Governor Christie has an approval rating from the voters in his state with an astounding 74% approving of his job performance.

-While Christie appears to have smooth sailing for re-election, he would lose to Hillary Clinton in 2016 by 49% to 45%. On the other hand, Christie would defeat Governor Cuomo by 54% to 36%.

-In the Virginia Governor's race to be held this year, Democratic Bill Clinton friend Terry McAuliffe is tied with right wing Republican Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli at 38% each.

-President Obama's current approval rating in the latest Gallup Poll is 51% approval vs. 42% disapproval.

POLITICAL UPDATE: News from the World Of Politics

 

 

 

-While Republicans are having a hard time finding someone to run for Secretary of State John Kerry's seat, Congressman Ed Markey might suddenly find himself in a very tight Democratic Primary. Congressman Stephen Lynch a 'Southie' from Boston and Pro-Life is giving Markey a race for his money. The new WBUR Poll has Markey at just 38% and Lynch a strong 31%.

-No one can be surprised the Senator Lautenberg did not seek re-election. He would have been 96 years old at the end of any new term! Newark Mayor Cory Booker(photograph above) faces a primary challenge from Congressman Frank Pallone who represents the Democratic machine from Northern New Jersey. Pallone is a flash back to the 1960's in New Jersey politics.  A poll showed Booker beating Lautenberg by 40% to 25%.

-The Democrats in Louisiana aren't dead yet. A new Public Policy Poll has lots of encouraging news! New Orleans Democratic Mayor Mitch Landreiu runs even with Republican United States Senator David Vitter in a race for Governor. Democratic United States Senator Mary Landreiu even leads Republican Governor Bobby Jindal by 8 points as she seeks re-election.

-Republicans in Louisiana are all over the board for their choices in the 2016 Presidential race however they are not aboard for their own Governor in that race. Also amazingly, their nominee for Vice President, Paul Ryan, runs a distant 7th in their choices. Here is how Louisiana would vote in the Republican primary:

Marco Rubio: 21%
Mike Huckabee: 18%
Bobby Jindah: 14%
Chris Christie: 11%
Jeb Bush: 9%
Rand Paul: 8%
Paul Ryan: 7%
Rich Perry: 3%

-While only 29% support marriage equality in Louisiana, amazingly 54% of that Southern state voters support civil unions. I am in shock.

-Interesting statistics coming out of Alaska. A recent poll showed Hillary Clinton running even with Republicans in a potential match-up in 2016. Clinton is tied with Marco Rubio and Chris Christie. She would beat Sarah Palin by a margin of 16 points in her home state!

Newly Released Poll Looks Ahead To 2016 Presidential Race

 

 

 

While it seems awful early to be looking at polls for the 2016 national presidential race, the fact that Hillary Clinton is in the mix makes it really interesting for folks. Public Policy Polling has just completed a national survey and here are the results:

In A Democratic Primary:

Hillary Clinton: 58%
Joe Biden: 19%
Elizabeth Warren: 8%
Andrew Cuomo: 3%

If Clinton doesn't run then the race belongs to the Vice President:

Joe Biden: 57%
Elizabeth Warren: 13%
Andrew Cuomo: 5%

In A Republican Primary:

Marco Rubio: 22%
Paul Ryan: 15%
Jeb Bush: 13%
Chris Christie: 13%
Mike Huckabee: 11%
Rand Paul: 10%
Bobby Jindal: 4%
Rick Perry: 3%
Susana Martinez: 1%

In the General Election, Chris Christie is the strongest candidate against Ms. Clinton. The results would be:

Hillary Clinton: 49%
Marco Rubio: 41%

Hillary Clinton: 49%
Jeb Bush: 43%

Hillary Clinton: 50%
Paul Ryan: 44%

Hillary Clinton: 46%
Chris Christie: 42%

To see how they all run in Iowa just click here....