Another Horrible Hurricane Forecast And Warning For East Coast

 

 

AccuWeather.com has issued their hurricane forecast for the upcoming hurricane season that starts officially on June 1st. Actually it is possible we could have our first tropical storm the last week of May.

The news is not good news especially for the East Coast still reeling from Hurricane Sandy!

Here is their forecast in full:

After a devastating blow to the East from Superstorm Sandy in October of 2012, residents and homeowners on the Atlantic coast should anticipate another active season in 2013.

AccuWeather.com's long-range team predicts 16 named tropical storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. Of these, three are predicted to make landfall in the United States.

Atlantic Hurricane Season Key Points:

1. The season may begin quickly this year with development in the Caribbean in June.
2. AccuWeather.com is predicting strong storms this year with a strength of category 2 or higher.
3. Areas along the East coast to the Gulf of Mexico are at risk for impacts from a tropical system.

Warm water across the Atlantic and Caribbean, paired with less frequent wind shear, may result in an above-normal number of storms. The normal number of named tropical storms in a given year is 12, according to NOAA.

Additionally, 2013 could set the stage for stronger storms than were seen in 2012.

Episodes of Saharan dust, a factor that can stifle a storm's development, may be less frequent this season. The reduced amount of dust may allow storms with a strength of category 2 or higher to develop.

The season is predicted to be normal in development, compared to last year when two storms were named before the official start of Atlantic hurricane season, June 1.

Should storms brew early in the season, from late May to early June, the season total for storms may be even higher than originally forecast.

Last year's early storms were an "anomaly," AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski said. "We think that this year will be more in line with a typical active season."

The biggest concerns for the upcoming season include development in the Gulf of Mexico, an impact in Florida and also another East Coast impact.

Florida is long overdue for a direct hurricane hit, Kottlowski said. Though they have been impacted by named tropical storms in the last couple of years, a direct hit by a hurricane has not occurred since Hurricane Wilma in 2005.

Concern is high for the East because of the remaining devastation as a result of the October 2012 landfall of Superstorm Sandy.

"It would be very difficult for a storm to hit right where Sandy hit," Kottlowski said. However, impacts such as storm surge, strong winds and heavy rain are possible as far as a few hundred miles from a storm, he explained.

The areas impacted by Sandy remain vulnerable as powerful storm surge wreaked havoc on the dune systems that were in place along the coast. Without dunes, there is increased potential for severe inland flooding.

Overall, however, the exact areas to be directly impacted this season and the severity of those impacts remain unclear.

"Those are very, very difficult to compute early in the season," Kottlowski said. "As we get into the season and see how things are setting up, then it becomes a little bit more noticeable

Weather Historian Has Dire Hurricane Warning For East Coast In 2013

 

 

 

"Hurricanes Irene and Sandy were just the warm-ups for the East Coast if a prolonged active period has begun, which seems likely."

-Rick Schwartz

Hurricane Season starts in just three weeks and Rick Schwartz who is the author of Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States has a dire prediction for residents along the East Coast. Based on historical patterns, the expert on storms that have hit the Middle Atlantic states believes that the region is in a new pattern and that a Cat 2 or Cat 3 storm is not out of the question in the near future.

Here is his most recent column:

Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and Irene in 2011 may well signal the start of an active hurricane cycle for the East Coast. If so, expect multiple Category 2 or stronger hurricane landfalls along the Eastern Seaboard during the next few years.

East Coast hurricane history is tied to decades-long cycles with many notable storms followed by generally longer periods of less frequent severe activity. Less active cycles last about 30 to 50 years and active cycles are generally 25 to 30 years. The first years of active cycles often surprise residents with multiple memorable hurricanes.

Cycles seem to start and end abruptly. Within the cycles are series or clusters of active years, typically three to six, with a quiet year often embedded in the longer series. They occur during active and less active cycles, but they are much more frequent during the former.

Hurricanes Irene and Sandy made landfall in New Jersey as Category 1 storms, the lowest rung on the five level Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. Coastal sections of the Northeast could see something with considerably stronger winds.

2013 marks the 75th anniversary of the Great New England Hurricane of 1938, a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds that struck Long Island, killing 600 residents of New England.

Frequently, two consecutive years of East Coast landfalls signal the start of a series. Since the Weather Service began tracking hurricanes in 1871, every series has included multiple Category 2 or stronger hurricanes reaching the East Coast.

Florida hasn’t had a hurricane landfall along the Atlantic coast since 2005, a remarkable lull considering the more than 100 named North Atlantic tropical cyclones since then. The last Category 2 hurricane to make landfall on the Eastern Seaboard north of Florida was Isabel in 2003. Fran in 1996 was the last Category 3 hurricane to strike north of Florida, and there have been more than 200 named storms since Fran.

Interior sections of the Mid-Atlantic region are due for a “Big One” hurricane wind event.

Hazel in October 1954 was the last tropical cyclone to bring actual hurricane force winds of 74 mph and higher to widespread interior sections of the region. The Category 4 storm made landfall in North Carolina with 140 mph sustained winds before tracking north through Virginia, Maryland and Pennsylvania.

Its unrelenting fury made for lifetime memories. Hazel set many wind records, including a 78 mph sustained wind in Washington, D.C., and a peak gust of 98 mph. Many sections east of Hazel's track, from North Carolina to New York, experienced hours of hurricane force gusts.

Often when a hurricane packing sustained winds of more than 100 mph makes landfall and is travelling faster than 30 mph, it retains hurricane force gusts for hundreds of miles despite an overland track. Hazel raced through the Northeast at 50 mph.

Inland hurricanes like Hazel have occurred regularly in the Mid-Atlantic region during the past 400 years. At least eight have tracked through Maryland and Virginia, with no interval longer than 58 years. The 2013 hurricane season, June 1 to November 30, is the longest period between Hazel-type events in those states during at least the past 400 years. Each occurred in September or October.

Hurricanes Irene and Sandy were just the warm-ups for the East Coast if a prolonged active period has begun, which seems likely. Many years of little hurricane activity seem to lure residents into complacency. 2013 is not a year for complacency.

CHECK OUT RICK SCHWARTZ'S WEBSITE HERE>>>>

PHOTOJOURNALISM: Hurricane Sandy Six Months Later

 

 

Hurricane Sandy was the biggest (in size) Atlantic hurricane ever to travel up the East Coast and it  slammed into New York and New Jersey happen just six months ago. While others states were heavily impacted, areas around metropolitan New York City were devastated. Tens of thousands of homes were destroyed along the coast. It was the worse weather disaster in the history of New York City. New Jersey had its worst hurricane in its history.

Over 250 people died in the path of the hurricane and it was the second most costly storm to every hit America. Only Katrina did more damage in its attack on the Gulf Coast. Hurricane Ike comes in at a close third. An estimated $70 billion was tallied by the all the impacted areas from storm Sandy.

Now Six months have passed and still the devastation is everywhere but progress is being made by the communities. Hospitals have reopened, transit systems are working, shelter is provided for everyone and New York city tunnels are no longer filled with water. However if you journey down to the sea the impact of Hurricane Sandy is still seen everywhere. There are glimmers of rebuilding taking place and some seaside cities will be fully operational by summer.

Boston.com's Big Picture this week did a photo essay on the area six months later.

 

YOU CAN SEE ALL THE PHOTOGRAPHS, CREDITS AND DESCRIPTINS BY CLICKING HERE>>>>>

Climate Change: Maps For Cities When Sea Level Rises Just Five Feet

 

Experts predict that the sea level along the East Coast will rise at least five feet within 100 years. Many scientists believe that is a conservative estimate and that the water could rise to that level within the lifetime of people living today.

BusinessInsider.com features the work of Nickolay Lamm of StorageFront.com who creates maps and photographs what are cities will look like with just a mere five feet increase of sea level.

Also looking at these maps, think of massive storm surges as hurricanes and northeasters become more and more powerful because of climate change. The recent storm surge in New York City hit 14 feet.

Map of Miami

Map of New York City

Map of Washington, DC

Map of Boston Back Bay

Map of Harvard University and Cambridge