Election 2012: Odds and Ends

 

 

 

-President Obama has every reason to be singing these days. Last December the President was in a virtual tie with Mitt Romney. The latest Associated Press-GfK Survey has the President handily beating all comers! Obama leads good ole Mitt by a margin of 51% to 43%! The President beats Santorum by 9 points, Newt by 10 points and Paul by 9 points. Obama runs above 50% against every one of the GOP candidates. In Time magazine, Republican pundit Mark Halperin writes "The Washington smart money is now on an Obama re-election."

-Looks like Arizona will be in play in 2012. In the last election McCain beat Obama by 53% to 45%. In the recent Public Policy Polling, the President is tied with almost all of the candidates. Only Santorum runs one point ahead of the President (47% to 46%).

-Romney could have a good next Tuesday if the polls are right. Arizona could be his best state since Nevada which also had a large number of Republican Mormon voters. In Michigan, he has some momentum but despite the huge number of negative ads against Santorum, he has not seen Rick fold like Newt did in Florida. In addition, since delegates are allocated by Congressional District, Santorum could hold his own on delegates.

-The biggest, loudest and most unprincipled bully in American politics has got to be Governor Chris Christie who is now telling Warren Buffett to just "shut up." This is on top of his vetoing the marriage equality bill in New Jersey. Of course you know he is doing all for the political effect and not on principle. The latest Quinnipiac Poll asked Republicans who they would support in a brokered convention. Number one was Christie with 32% and the number two spot was the duo of Sarah Palin and Jeb Bush each with 20%. God help us.

-The latest Insider Advantage Poll has basically a three way tie in Georgia. Newt has 25%, Mitt has 23% and Santorum is hanging in there with 22%.

-Is Mitt last year's story? So far there have been nine states that have held their primary/caucus elections. In six of those states, less people voted for Mitt than in 2008.

-The Detroit News, interestingly enough more conservative than the other daily, The Detroit Free Press, has endorsed Romney in the Michigan Primary.

-Washington State primary follows Arizona and Michigan by just four days. The latest PPP has Santorum with the lead with 38% to 27% for Mitt. Paul is in third place with 15% and Gingrich is last at 12%.

-Obama creams the field of Republican candidates in Wisconsin. He leads Santorum by 11 points and Romney by 15 points! In the Republican Primary, according to the Marquette Law School Poll, Santorums leads with 34%, Romney is at 18% and Ron Paul is hot on Romney's heels with 17% of the vote!

 

-Seems like good ole Rick Santorum likes his beer! Mother Jones has a story that Santorum was the 'go-to' guy for beer companies. When he was a senator he received at least $80,000 from beer companies and their executives. Guess the devil made him do it.

-"Oklahoma" must be Santorum's favorite musical since he is slamming in that state. The latest poll has him at 43%, Gingrich second at 22% and Romney a distinct third at 18%. That Bible belt is still there isn't it?

-Nate Silver keeps a running Republican Primary Projections on his New York Times site "Five Thirty Eight." Here are his latest odds on who will win the different states:

-In Arizona, Romney has a 89% chance of winning that primary.

-In Michigan, he gives a slight edge to Santorum at 51%.

-In Georgia, he projects almost a three way tie with all of them in the low 30% range.

-In Ohio, he gives Santorum a huge 91% chance of taking the primary. Wow.

LGBT: Five Actions The LGBT Community Must Do To Win The Ballot Measures

 

 

In just seven months, Americans will start their 'early voting' for the November election. That means for the LGBT community that all of our television time, mailers, calls, endorsements, etc must be completed and ready to implement. Now is the exactly the time our leaders, organizations and major donors should be finalizing plans to win the pending ballot measures that will be on the November ballot.

Now is not the time to wait, hold back, speculate and second guess. Delay is our enemy since I can promise you the other side, as in previous elections, is getting its act together. If we can win at least Maine and Washington State it will be huge victory. If we can add Maryland and Minnesota to that tally then it will be a 'knock out' punch to the anti-marriage equality folks.

A four or five state victory would make marriage equality an inevitability.

Here are five actions the LGBT community should be working on (or continuing to work on in some cases):

1. President Obama: Having the President stake an unequivocal position in favor of our side in different states is essential to victory. Our opposition last time used his statement that 'marriage is between a man and woman" against us in California. We must have the kind of statement from the President and First Lady that can be used in ads, robo-calls, targeted mailings, etc. This must be done sooner than later. His assistance will be especially needed in Maryland where the African American community is 30% of the state vote.

2. Republicans: Yep, that is right, I am saying we need to mobilize among the Republicans. The operational models used and in New York and Maryland should be extended to the electorate. Ken Mehlman has done a spectacular job of mobilizing Republican support for these efforts. If that same team would be able to obtain persons like Laura Bush / Dick Cheney to do targeted mailings or robo-calls, it would not be out of the question that we could increase by at least 5% the number of Republicans voting for marriage equality.

3. Money: Now is not the time for our major donors to hold back and play coy. They must coordinate and get early money into the campaign organizations or set up their own super PACS. Early money is the name of the game. Fortunately because of the Mehlman operation there are significant Republicans funds this time around. In addition, New York and California major donors should be made aware of the consequences of delay and the real opportunity of victory if step forward in a timely manner.

4. Endorsements: Freedom to Marry is doing an excellent job of lining up major endorsements. HRC has its video program of prominent people endorsing marriage equality. Of great assistance in Washington State was the entire business community (Microsoft, Amazon and Starbucks) endorsing marriage equality. Now we have to get national sports stars, entertainers, business folks, etc who will make ads or sign mailers not 'generally' coming out for marriage but specifically in different states asking people to vote the right way.

5. LGBT Community: No one in this community gets a free ride this election. Every single one of us must step forward and be counted. The grassroots around the country can do an enormous amount to help the different efforts.

-Have house parties, dances, etc to raise funds. Do one a month for a different state.

-Individuals can write $10, $20 or even $100 checks for each state contest. Some of you can do it every month. To pledge $10 a month for each of the five states is the cost of five drinks each month. Think about it.

-Using social media urge everyone you know to give, write relatives and friends in those states, volunteer at national organizations that are assisting the efforts, beg your national professional organizations to take a stand, write letter to editors.

-Pray for Victory!

LGBT: Five LGBT Marriage Equality Ballot Measures In 2012?

 

 

If the Maryland State senate passes the marriage equality bill being sent to it by the Maryland Assembly, the likelihood of a referendum in Maryland is extremely high. If that is the case, then the LGBT community will face five ballots measures in the 2012 election come November. Two of them will be defensive and three will be to keep/establish marriage equality.

Over the next week is a good time to reflect on how we can prepare effectively in each of these states. Needless to say, money is always essential but quite honestly we are getting to the tipping point - people's minds are mostly made up on the issue. There are of course targeted communities where an enormous amount of work needs to be done, including getting out the vote and the responding to any lies and inevitable distortions by our opponents.

However, we enter this political season with more resources than ever before including a lead in some states. Powerful people from around the country are now willing to step forward as indicated by the willingness of former Vice President Cheney to make some calls to Republicans in Maryland. The political playing field is becoming more even. Some of the states have been preparing for this moment for quite some time (for example Maine) and others are facing this issue with limited resources (North Carolina).

Here are the five states and a quick summary:

MAINE: On the ballot in November will be a measure to institute marriage equality in the state of Maine. Marriage equality has been a battleground issue in this state for at least three election cycles. The LGBT community and its allies are well organized. The last election was a reasonably close one and a great deal has changed since then. They will always need financial assistance but they seem in great shape organizationally. LGBT Americans have a real opportunity to make Maine our ninth marriage equality state.

MARYLAND: The measure will be to overturn the passage by the legislature of marriage equality in November. The state has good resources both in the Washington suburbs and Baltimore. Maryland has one of the highest African American populations in the United States (30%) and they will vote heavily in the fall because of President Obama. While we are in very good shape with that community's leadership, the faith leaders are more of a challenge. You know that NOM will focus on them heavily. This is where we will win or lose in the state.

MINNESOTA: In November there will be a measure to place into the State Constitution an amendment to ban marriage equality. The state has a large progressive base that is very energized by the issue but the latest polls have it running almost dead even between no and yes. Their major problem is that the focus nationally will be on protecting marriage equality and adding states (Maine, Maryland and Washington) instead of a more defensive battle.

NORTH CAROLINA: The Republicans have placed on the ballot a state constitutional amendment similar to Minnesota's. In an effort to 'fix the game' they have placed it on the May primary ballot where there is only a Republican Primary for President. Meanwhile the governor has to step down and there might be a Democratic Gubernatorial primary. Because of how the Republican 'rigged the election,' this one is an uphill battle.

WASHINGTON: Like Maryland, this effort will be to save marriage equality recently passed by the legislature. The LGBT community in this state has been working for years for this moment and has successfully faced initiatives so far. The polls are looking good and along with Maine, this might be our best shot.

Marriage Equality: A Very Special Day In Washington State

 

 

Today, if all goes well, Governor Chris Gregoire (D) will sign into law full marriage equality for Washington State LGBT citizens. The state becomes the seventh state plus the District of Columbia to pass marriage equality.

One only has to think back to the year 2004 when the Massachusetts Supreme Court ordered marriage equality. At first it was viewed as a "Massachusetts anomaly" and most likely would not be duplicated elsewhere. Nothing could have been further from the truth. Today we officially have "The Magnificent Seven" plus for the first time ever a majority of Americans wanting full marriage equality for their LGBT neighbors.

In May it will be eight years since that Massachusetts decision, not even a decade, and look how far we have come. Just imagine what life will be like for us in 2020! Congratulations to the LGBT community in Washington. They did a spectacular job of getting this passed and signed. This is a very special day indeed.

Enjoy this remarkable video of Washington Republican Representative Maureen Walsh who voted for marriage equality. It is a lovely moment from that debate.

Marriage Equality: The Magnificent Seven!

 

 

The Washington State House of Representatives voted for marriage equality (55 to 43 vote) yesterday afternoon. By joining with the State Senate, the bill now goes to the desk of Governor Christine Gregoire. She has promised to sign the legislation and is expected to do so in a couple of days.

This now makes for marriage equality advocates "The Magnificent Seven!" Washington will join six other states and the District of Columbia as marriage equality states. The seven states are: Massachusetts, Connecticut, Vermont, New Hampshire, Iowa, New York and now Washington State

Also yesterday legislation was submitted in Illinois to make that state a marriage equality state. A vote is expected next week in New Jersey and we will see if there are enough votes to override Christie's promised veto. Finally work is well underway in Maryland.

Washington United for Marriage has asked all of us to sign a petition that they can take to Governor Gregoire at the signing to say 'thank you' from everyone. Please join me in signing that petition by clicking here.

Impressions...by David Mixner

 

 

-"The Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away..." Just last week the LGBT community was so excited about Governor Chris Christie's appointment of openly gay Mayor Bruce Harris to the New Jersey Supreme Court. Now we find out Harris made a pact with the devil and agreed to Christie's condition that he would recuse himself from any marriage equality cases! Does that mean African-Americans and Jewish-Americans have to recuse themselves too on cases impacting those communities? Is it even legal for the governor to demand a 'vote' before appointing someone! Outrageous!

-Count me among the many millions of "Downton Abby" fans. I can't wait for the Sunday night series. Now we get word that legendary actress and old friend Shirley MacLaine (photograph above) will be in the cast of Season Three starting in September! By the way, isn't it long overdue that MacLaine receive a Kennedy Center Honor? Now, that page should be created on Facebook!

-In Washington State, the Senate will vote on marriage equality tomorrow.  If it passes, the House will quickly vote on it and send to the Governor who will sign the legislation. Keep your fingers crossed!

-Did your jaw drop as much as mine when I heard that Mitt Romney and his wife Anne made his dead father-in-law a Mormon? Seems as deceased wasn't big on religion at all when he was alive. Nothing like forcing your values and religion on the dead.

The Glass House Tavern packed the celebrities in the last two weeks. Seen gracing their tables were Stephen Sondheim, Bernadette Peters, Nick Jonas (photograph), Michael Lurie, Beau Bridges and Agent Michael Moore.

-New Public Policy Polling has arrived on the anti-LGBT Constitutional Amendment that will be on the ballot this coming fall in Minnesota.  At this moment 48% will vote against us and 44% for us. Looks like a tough road ahead on this one.

-The United States might have set an all time low temperature record for all fifty states. One station in Alaska might have passed -80 degrees. While we have been having the year without winter, Alaska has been frigid and tons of snow. God help us if it breaks loose and heads south.

-In the 1960's, people would shout at protestors to move from the good ole USA if they didn't like it here. Congressman Alan West (R-FL) gave a speech where he suggested that the President, the Speaker and The Senate Majority Leader should all "get the hell out of the United States!"  

-This week will be the vote in New Hampshire to repeal the marriage equality bill. Already some Republicans are refusing their party leadership to fall into line. What is clear is that Governor John Lynch will veto the bill and it is becoming increasingly unlikely there will be the votes to override the veto. By the way, over 60% of the people of New Hampshire support marriage equality.

-At last a real heroine emerges from the Costa Concordia shipwreck. After the cowardly captain 'accidentally' fell into a life boat, a young Peruvian waitress, Erika Fani Soriamolina, stayed onboard, helped passengers into life boats and gave her life jacket to an elderly man. Her body was found on the ship this week.

-Finn Air was taking a plane full of passengers from Helsenki to Delhi to celebrate India's Republic Day. Suddenly before take off dancers appeared in the aisle and gave them all a taste of Bollywood!

-London's 'Countdown to the Olympics' has started and the plans are well underway for the Opening Night. The theme will be a Shakespearean "Isles of Wonder" under the direction of Danny Boyle, Oscar-winning helmer of "Slumdog Millionaire."

-Producer/Director Ryan Murphy of "Glee" fame has had NBC pick up his new pilot "The New Normal.". The comedy is about two gay men and the surrogate mother they pick to carry their baby! Andrew Rannells from Broadway's "Book of Mormon" would be one of the three leads.

-MassResistance in 2007 posted this piece about how 'pro-life Romney' really didn't have his heart into it back then. Worth a read.

-Chicago might have its hands full come the G-8 Conference May 1. A leading Occupy Movement magazine is calling for 50,000 protesters to converge on the city to protest the G-8 policies. Mayor Rahm Emmanuel might have wished he stayed in DC. Here is a video clip from the 1968 Democratic Convention the last time so many protesters visited Chicago. And we all know how well that turned out.

Impressions....by David Mixner

 

 

-Well my heart belongs to Tom Brady but my team is the New York Giants for the Super Bowl! This will be the battle of the two 'cover boy' quarterbacks. Go New York Giants Blue!! Outsports.com has proclaimed these teams as two of the most LGBT friendly team in the NFL.

-Romney in one of his speeches said, "I didn't inherit money from my parents. What I have, I earned. I worked hard the American way." Actually Romney did inherit some money from his wealthy parents but says that ten years later he gave it charity. There is another two words someone should ask him about, "Trust Fund".

-The 'bad taste of the year' award goes to the owners of the ill fated Costa Concordia cruise ship for offering the passengers a 30% discount on their next cruise. Really, the idiots really make that offer!

-London's "Telegraph" has an amazing slide show of pictures. All of the pictures are taken on the ship the night of the sinking. Here is one from the hull of the ship as they attempt to escape down its side. Click here to view the others.

-Republican Chris Christie has appointed an African-American gay man to the New Jersey Supreme Court. Mayor Bruce A Harris would be the first openly LGBT appointment in the history of the state.

-Washington State now has enough votes in their State Senate for marriage equality. There are enough votes in the House and Governor Chris Gregoire has promised to sign it. The right wing National Organization for Marriage has promised to take it to the ballot in November if they can get the signatures. The last poll taken showed that the voters would vote for marriage equality by 55% to 38%. Wow.

-Delegate Heather Mizeur from Maryland says that Governor Martin O'Malley will introduce marriage equality legislation today in the Maryland legislature. Here is Delegate Mizeur from the last battle.

 

-The marriage equality news this week is endless. Love, Honor and Cherish in California has started collecting signatures to place repeal of Proposition 8 on the November ballot. This will be an uphill effort given the number of signatures required in a very short time period. If anyone wants to collect signatures click here.

-Jaweed Kaleenm has written an article for The Huffington Post exploring the pay and perks of America's leading Pastors. For example Joel Osteen of the Lakewood Church in Houston doesn't take a salary but is worth tens of millions of dollars. He has a new $10.5 million 17,000 square foot mansion.

-The word from the Sundance Film Festival is that the documentary "How To Survive A Plague" received two standing ovations and is a hit. Bravo to David France and Joy Tomchin!

-Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin has raised over one million dollars in the last quarter of reporting in her effort to become the first ever open LGBT person elected to the United States Senate. Have you make a contribution yet? Click here.

-The Miller Grizzied Langur Monkey has long been believed to be totally extinct. They have recently been discovered in Indonesia.

-Towleroad.com has a great story on Pekka Haavisto who is an openly gay man seeking to be the Presidency of Finland. If he would win he would join Iceland and Belgium as countries with openly LGBT people as head of states. He also have a very handsome partner. Check it out!

-Public Policy Polling shows that of the nation's independent voters that 71% would have no problem voting for an openly LGBT candidate. This is America's largest blocks of voters and a very important statistic.

-Katherine Dean has written for the Huffington Post the places where LGBT couples (at all costs!) should avoid for their honeymoon. Jamaica and Belize are both on the list!

-According to the Harris Poll, Johnny Depp is once again the most popular actor in America. Believe it or not, John 'the Duke' Wayne still places fifth! Go figure.

-"Think Progress LGBT" has a great article by Igor Volsky on Romney's history with the LGBT community when he was running for Governor of Massachusetts. He was so pro-LGBT in that race and even compared our struggle for freedom to that his father fought for African-Americans in the 1960's. So much for principles......

-Gizmodo.com has taken some historical pictures and added color. You can see them all at the site but do you think honest Abe looks better in black and white or color?

LGBT: An Important Couple of Weeks for Marriage Equality

 

 

The election year of 2012 is shaping up to be a major one for those who support marriage equality. The states of New Jersey, New Hampshire, Maine, Washington, Minnesota, North Carolina and Maryland all have serious marriage equality efforts taking place. In some states we are fighting off repressive initiatives or repealing existing marriage equality legislation (Minnesota, North Carolina and New Hampshire). In the other states we are proactively fighting for the passage of full equality in the legislatures.

While Minnesota and Maine are next November and North Carolina is this May, we face some real action over the next couple of weeks.

-The passage of marriage equality is moving rapidly through the New Jersey legislature and the pro forces might have enough votes to override a veto by Governor Christie.

-In Washington State it appears we are currently just one vote short in the State Senate and passage is likely with the Governor signing the legislation. The likelihood of a referendum is high.

-The recent opposition by the Democratic Senate President in Maryland has slowed down that effort.

-New Hampshire has postponed a vote until February in the Republican effort to repeal marriage equality.

The next couple of weeks promise to be a really interesting and extremely important time for marriage equality supporters.