Yesterday saw well over two dozen tornado's hit across five states. Some towns, like Shawnee (Oklahoma), saw massive damage. Two of the weather communities most famous personalities and icons, the Weather Channel's Jim Cantore and Storm Chaser Reed Timmer, were in Oklahoma following the storm.
What resulted was this both terrifying and exciting video.
While newly formed Storm Saturn's impact is coming into focus, for some areas the future is still uncertain.
Already the storm is having an impact in the West with two feet of snow and winds up to 70 mph in Montana.
Becoming more clear is the impact ranging from Virginia to Southern New Jersey.
Of most concern is a significant storm surge that could hit Southern New Jersey through at least two high tides In areas, the storm surge could be among the top ten storm surges ever and have the capacity to do major damage. Dr. Jeff Master's reports:
"As the storm moves off the coast on Wednesday night, winds gusting to 50 mph will build waves of up to 15' and a 3 - 4' storm surge along the coast to the north of the center. Heavy rains will bring runoff down rivers that will act to increase water levels along the coast. The latest Forecast Discussion from the Mount Holly, NJ NWS office highlights the likelihood of at least moderate coastal flooding in Delaware during the high tide cycles on Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning, with the possibility of major flooding. The latest storm surge forecast from the GFS model calls for a storm surge of around 3' at Lewes, Delaware on Thursday morning, which would bring the 8th highest water level on record to the coast. This is of concern due to the damage Hurricane Sandy brought in October, which weakened the dunes and left the coast more vulnerable to erosion. Sandy brought the 3rd highest water level on record to Lewes."
Winds along the coast line in these areas could be gale force for two days.
Heavy wet snow will fall in a broad area from Virginia to Southern New Jersey. Because of the weight of the snow and winds, massive power outrages are possible. Washington, D.C and Baltimore can expect anywhere from 8 inches to 18 inches with the heavier amounts to the West of the cities.
The models differ on the path of the storm.
All agree it will be a slow moving storm increasing the likelihood of damage on all fronts. The American Model has the storm hitting New York and Boston hard. The Euro Model, which has until today kept the storm South, has edged the line up closer to New York. The Northward trend has been happening the last couple of days.
Especially New York should be prepared for a possible heavy snow fall with little warning. It might miss altogether but it is a close call.
The models are at war on this Friday's forecast and it is literally a roll of the dice for New York City. The American model has the Big Apple getting just 1" to 3" of snow while New England has a full fledge blizzard. The European model shares the blizzard with New York City and forecast over a foot of snow there. One model from a less reliable agency has New York receiving over thirty inches of snow.
What is clear is that starting as rain early Friday morning a storm will develop off the coast. At this time it is likely that New York City could receive up to six inches of snow and quite possible could reach over a foot. The winds will be strong. The snow could be wet and drifting might not be a problem but that also could mean some power outrages. The wet snow clinging to trees and wires with heavy winds could cause major power disruptions.
Everyone should stay tune. Most likely there will not be a consensus on the models until Thursday night.
Weather.com has picked over three dozen weather pictures from the year 2012. Here are a few of my favorites.
This Thanksgiving weekend Americans are flocking to their destinations in their cars. Unable to afford to fly their entire families or perhaps because flying has become such a nightmare experts expect over 90% of the people to drive over the woods and through the snow in their cars.
The Weather Channel has the ten worst roads at Thanksgiving that have been chosen by Texas A&M Transportation Institute and INRIX. The institutions based their choices on the number of hours wasted in traffic, gallons of gas wasted and the cost of the congestion.
Here are the ten roads you will want to avoid this holiday!
1. Los Angeles: Harbor Freeway/ CA-110 NB
2. New York: Goethals Bridge EB/ I-278
3. San Francisco: Grove Shafter Freeway/ CA-25 WB
4. Seattle: I-5 NB
5. Austin: I-35NB
6. Washington, D.C.: I-95 SB
7. Houston: I-45 SB
8. Chicago: Eisenhower Expressway/ I-290 WB
9. Philadelphia: Schuylkill Expressway/ I-76 WB
10. Dallas-Fort Worth: Loop 820/ I-820 WB
-Above is a great photograph off Twitter of renown photographer Nigel Barker taking a picture of Taylor Swift taking a picture of him. Two sexy people having fun!
-Politico.com has an article by Alexander Burns that not only can't the Republicans can't count voters they have the worse pollsters in the world. That is the reason so many of them believed that Romney would win!
-The same site also has Kenneth Vogel reporting that Karl Rove is really feeling the heat for getting exactly nothing for over a quarter of a billion spent. He also did himself no favors by his appearance on Fox News that night. It was painful to watch.
-Broadway Cares/Equity Fight AIDS donated an amazing $250,000 for Hurricane Sandy relief. Each day it is clearer just how devastating the hurricane was for New York and New Jersey. Thousands of volunteers are heading out from Manhattan to the impacted areas including Justin Timberlake and Jessica Biel (above) according to Emily Smith of Page Six!
-President Clinton best pal, Terry McCauliffe , is going to make a second run at the Governorship of Virginia in 2013
-Wow. The Glass House Tavern has been packing in the celebrities. Among seen at the West 47th Street establishment has been Cheyenne Jackson (below), Ari Graynor, Henry Winkler, Jessica Chastain, Dan Stevens, Director Moises Kaufman, Matthew Broderick, Tracy Ullman, Boyd Gaines, Richard Thomas, Chris Bolan , Judith Light, Lance Horne, Nigel Barker, Alicia Silverstone, Richard Kind, Gabourey Sidibe and the legendary Judy Kaye!
-Republican Senator Marco Rubio is already huddling with his top advisors to figure out his plans over the next four years. Will he attempt to become the first Hispanic nominee for President? The Republicans are urgently looking for ways to attract this emerging bloc of voters.
-Kerry Eleveld has a spectacular article in The Atlantic laying out why President Obama will be an effective liberal in his second term.
-Well so much for the influence of the Pope on our elections. Irish Central reports that American Catholics voted 52% to 48% for President Obama!
-The Courier-Journal reports that actress Ashley Judd (below) is seriously thinking of running for the Senator seat held by Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in 2014.
-Want to know how your county voted in your state? Just click here and you can obtain election results by state and county.
-Congressman Paul Ryan who has always carried his hometown of Janesville lost it by ten points in his race for Congress and by twenty-five points in his race for Vice-President! The Romney/Ryan ticket barely even carried Ryan's Congressional District. Bet Romney wishes he would have picked Ohio Senator Rob Portman.
-Glenn Beck is beside himself with the election results. He rails against Speaker John Boehner, Republicans in Congress and Karl Rove. Watch the video by clicking here.
-If you want to see how the religious folks voted in this election just click here.
-Queen Elizabeth look elegant as he observed "Remembrance Day" on November 11. She lead a two minute nationwide moment of silence.
-David Badash, editor and founder of The New Civil Rights Movement, has a great column on The Huffington Post on reactions from LGBT leaders to the election. It is a must read.
-George P. Bush, the son of former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, is putting together a committee to run for office in Texas. It is not clear which one he will be seeking. The Bush Dynasty continues into the next generation.
-Everyone expects the usual 'second-term shake-up' with President Obama's Cabinet. Edward-Issac Dovere does a good job of finding out who are the leading contenders for the different positions. Senator John Kerry (D-MA) (photograph) is a leading candidate for Secretary of State.
-If Kerry is offered the position of Secretary of State, will we see a Senate Race to replace him between Governor Deval Patrick (D) and recently defeated Senator Scott Brown (R)?
-Hurricane Sandy was good for one thing. The Weather Channel had 39 million viewers on the Sunday before the storm came ashore. Weather.com had more than 300 million page views about Hurricane Sandy!
-Senator Claire McCaskill's victory over right-winger Todd Akin had to be bitter sweet. Her mother Betty Anne McCaskill (see below on right) passed away the week before the election. Ms. Betty Anne had been a force in Missouri politics since the 1950's. Six years ago I had the privileged to campaign with Ms. Betty Anne and she was an amazing personality and had brilliant political mind.
Will Hurricane Sandy be one of the most costly hurricanes of all time? Current damage estimates range from $20 billion to $50 billion. If it is the latter, it will be the second most costly hurricane in history. Hurricane Irene places sixth on the list below with a total of $15.8 billion in damage.
1. Hurricane Katrina ($108 Billion)
2. Hurricane Ike ($29.5 Billion)
3. Hurricane Andrew ($26.5 Billion)
4. Hurricane Wilma ($21 Billion)
5. Hurricane Ivan ($18.8 Billion)
From Dr. Jeff Masters of WeatherUnderground.com
Last night's 9:30 pm EDT H*Wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Sandy's winds at a modest 2.6 on a scale of 0 to 6. However, the destructive potential of the storm surge was exceptionally high: 5.7 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is a higher destructive potential than any hurricane observed between 1969 - 2005, including Category 5 storms like Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Camille, and Andrew. The previous highest destructive potential for storm surge was 5.6 on a scale of 0 to 6, set during Hurricane Isabel of 2003. Sandy is now forecast to bring a near-record storm surge of 6 - 11 feet to Northern New Jersey and Long Island Sound, including the New York City Harbor. This storm surge has the potential to cause many billions of dollars in damage if it hits near high tide at 9 pm EDT on Monday. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical high tide will be about 5% higher than the average high tide for the month. This will add another 2 - 3" to water levels. Fortunately, Sandy is now predicted to make a fairly rapid approach to the coast, meaning that the storm surge will not affect the coast for multiple high tide cycles. Sandy's storm surge will be capable of overtopping the flood walls in Manhattan, which are only five feet above mean sea level. On August 28, 2011, Tropical Storm Irene brought a storm surge of 4.13' to Battery Park on the south side of Manhattan. The waters poured over the flood walls into Lower Manhattan, but came 8 - 12" shy of being able to flood the New York City subway system. According to the latest storm surge forecast for NYC from NHC, Sandy's storm surge is expected to be several feet higher than Irene's. If the peak surge arrives near Monday evening's high tide at 9 pm EDT, a portion of New York City's subway system could flood, resulting in billions of dollars in damage. I give a 50% chance that Sandy's storm surge will end up flooding a portion of the New York City subway system.
An excellent September 2012 article in the New York Times titled, "New York Is Lagging as Seas and Risks Rise, Critics Warn" quoted Dr. Klaus H. Jacob, a research scientist at Columbia University’s Earth Institute, on how lucky New York City got with Hurricane Irene. If the storm surge from Irene had been just one foot higher, "subway tunnels would have flooded, segments of the Franklin D. Roosevelt Drive and roads along the Hudson River would have turned into rivers, and sections of the commuter rail system would have been impassable or bereft of power," he said, and the subway tunnels under the Harlem and East Rivers would have been unusable for nearly a month, or longer, at an economic loss of about $55 billion. Dr. Jacob is an adviser to the city on climate change, and an author of the 2011 state study that laid out the flooding prospects. “We’ve been extremely lucky,” he said. “I’m disappointed that the political process hasn’t recognized that we’re playing Russian roulette.”
The barometric pressure, which is a measure of a storm's intensity, has dropped this morning from 960 to 951. The Perfect Storm and Storm of the Century pressure were in the low 960's making this storm one of much greater intensity. The pressure could drop into the 940's before landfall.
Storm surges for Long Island, Long Island Sound, New York City and New Jersey are now expected to be 6 to 8 feet and that does include wave height. Some waves will be as high as 12 to 18 feet along the shore on top of the surge. Already off North Carolina, waves have been measured up to 35 feet!
If the surge reaches that height in New York Harbor (the waves will not be that high in the harbor), the odds dramatically increase the subways and tunnels will fill with water. Power will have to be sure off in large sections of New York City to avoid fires and greater damage to the grid system.
Over 250,00 homes could sustain storm surge damage reaching into the billions.
John Hopkins University models are showing up to ten million people could be without power up to 10 days.
The storm is so big that hurricane force guests could be felt in Buffalo and Pittsburgh!
In many ways, this is the first storm of the 'climate change age' with warmer waters enabling monster storms to grow to unbelievable size and strength.
Well known and respected hurricane expert Bryan Norcross especially warns New York City and is concerned that Mayor Bloomberg has downplayed this storm. He says
"Normally we would say the fat lady has sung, and get ready to fold up our hurricane hunters and go home. But, those same reliable computer models are saying that Combo Sandy is going to get reinvigorated by the jet stream while still getting energy from the Gulf Stream tomorrow and Monday, and get stronger and bigger. And then pounce on the Northeast.
The bigness of the circulation means big problems in at least two ways. A tremendous area from Canada to North Carolina to Ohio will be getting high winds from Sandy at the same time. That means trees down, power out, and a lot of miserable people in the chilly weather after the storm. And more importantly, the amount of energy the storm puts in the ocean water goes up dramatically with the diameter of the high-wind area. Not to mention, Sandy is already one of the biggest hurricanes on record.
When Sandy moves toward the coast, that high-energy water comes with it, which means high storm surge and stunningly high waves.
If the center of the circulation lands on the Jersey Shore, as looks most likely, the focus on that energy is going to be on North Jersey, New York Harbor, and the south shore of Long Island. The National Weather Service in New York is predicting waves 10 to 20 feet high on the south-facing beaches. Holy crap!
Did I also mention that's on top of the storm surge, which is forecast to raise the ocean level 4 to 8 feet above normal? And did I also mention that there's a full moon and the storm's peak is expected to be around high tide? Holy triple whammy!
That NJ/NYC/Long Island elbow is like a catchers mitt for storm surge, on the rare occasion that a big storm comes at it from the southeast or east... just like Sandy's forecast. The only thing that can stop extremely high water with battering waves from affecting the region is for the forecast to be wrong.
If the forecast is even mostly right, the ocean water will come in higher than during Hurricane Irene, which came within a foot of doing serious damage to NYC infrastructure. And that brings up the incomprehensibly inexplicable news conference by Mayor Bloomberg.
I'm NOT saying that the Mayor should have ordered an evacuation. That's for him to decide, and it's a tough decision. But to play down the biggest storm to come along in years - if the forecast is even close - seems bizarrely out of character. There's no upside in this everything-is-rosy approach. He could have expressed concern for the people whose houses are going to get smashed along the coast, but said AT THIS TIME he was going to hold off on any evacuation orders. A statement like that gives him room to maneuver and people get the message that preparation is required."
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